King Arthur Movie Tristan

Polls last week put Stephan Dion, and his Liberal party, in horrible position. But as I've said before, ignore polls: watch what they do, not what the polls say. However, an exception comes to mind when repeated polls show a definite pattern. In the past month, repeated polls show the Liberals going down, the Conservatives going up, and more importantly, Stephan Dion's numbers in a full flush. That pattern has to be worrisome for Dion.

Which brings us to the Dion-May accord:

Stephane Dion has decided not to run a Liberal candidate against Green party Leader Elizabeth May in the next federal election.

Dion, who shares May's environmental idealism, is expected to make the announcement today. In return, sources say May will promise not to run a Green candidate against the Liberal leader and will essentially endorse Dion for prime minister.

Why would Stephen Dion agree to not run a candidate against May, in return for no Green candidate against him? It only makes sense if you assume Dion is going to have trouble holding his seat. Otherwise it's just giving up a seat to someone else. This accord shows that Dion has not just the Liberal party on the ropes, but is himself on the ropes.

So if you are a Liberal party supporter, you can safely believe those negative polls, because clearly Stephan Dion does.