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4. Denver Broncos (6-10): Good news for Denver, the Josh McDaniels era is over. Now starts the John Fox era, with John Elway as the president of football operations. Even though Broncos fans might be happy with the new hire, they are not happy with the decision making, mainly at QB. Fox has elected to start Kyle Orton week 1 instead of 2010 first round pick Tim Tebow. Fox has repeatedly called Tebow, "a work in progress." While some Broncos fans might not agree with the move, I think Orton gives Denver the best chance to win. Orton was the main reason that Brandon Lloyd's career was reborn last season and if he could be just half as good, then the Broncos are in for a good season offensively. That is, if Knowhown Moreno and that running game can get going. As for the defense, it was one of the worst last season, which is why they selected OLB Von Miller in the draft in April. Miller, to me, was the best player in this years draft and will be the defensive rookie of the year. While 2011 might not bring playoffs, I think it will be a step in the right direction. 

3. Oakland Raiders (8-8): You can make the case that the Raiders were the most surprising team from a season ago. Oakland was able to sweep the division, but unable to win it, becoming the first team to ever do so. Jason Cambell needs to play well if the Raiders want to turn their fortunes around, but Darren McFadden and that run game will be leading the way. McFadden had a breakout season last year rushing for 1,157 yards and 7 touchdowns. I think this season its Darius Heyward-Bey's turn to have a breakout season. The one big question for the Raiders this season is their secondary. Remember, the lost one of the best CB's in the league in Nnamdi Asomugha. Watching their preseason games against the 49ers and Seahawks, QB's like Alex Smith and Charlie Whitehurst were completing passes with ease and moving down the field every time the offense had the ball. That will have to change if they want to compete with Philip Rivers and the Chargers. I just don't think they have the talent to do so in 2011, but I think a 8-8 record for a second straight year for the silver and black isn't shocking. 

2. Kansas City Chiefs (9-7): Nobody expected the Chiefs to compete for a division title last season, but the Chargers special teams problems made it easy for them. So did RB Jamaal Charles, who had 1,467 yards and 5 touchdowns in 2010. QB Matt Cassell also had a break out season thanks to WR Dwayne Bowe, who caught 15 touchdown passes. While 2010 was a good season for the Chiefs, the playoff game against the Ravens showed how inexperienced they were. I hate to say it, but this team was a one hit wonder. If you have been able to watch them in the preseason, they have looked awful. Cassell has not been able to stay upright and Charles is having fumbling problems (he had 2 fumbles in the redzone in the final preseason game of the season). If those problems continue into the regular season, the Chiefs will have to rely more on their defense. Eric Berry became one of the best safeties in the NFL during his rookie campaign and I expect him to have another great season. I don't expect, however, the Chiefs to win this division again. That is, if San Diego doesn't shoot themselves in the foot. 

1. San Diego Chargers (11-5): Most of the wounds that the Chargers suffered last season when they got beat out for the division title by the Chiefs were self-inflicting, mainly on special teams. The Chargers had five blocked punts last season, while the rest of the league had a combined six. San Diego did hire a new Special Teams coordinator, so that should aspect of their game should be improved. QB Philip Rivers, meanwhile, seems to be at the top of his game. Rivers had 4,710 yards and 30 touchdowns last season, even though TE Antonio Gates had injury problems and WR Vincent Jackson missed most of the year over a contract dispute. Both those guys will be back in 2011 and I expect the Chargers to take the title as the #1 pass offense in the league. Their RB Ryan Matthews needs to play better if this team intends on going to the Super Bowl this season. Remember last year he sat out most of the year with injury and when he was in the game, he couldn't hold on to the ball. Don't keep your eyes off Matthews at any means, I think he is due for a breakout season. On the other side of the ball, the Chargers lost defensive coordinator Ron Rivera but was able to get Greg Manusky, who was the 49ers defensive coordinator last year. Manusky also brought MLB Takeo Spikes with him, which will bring a veteran leadership that defense has been lacking. While lightning didn't strike last season, expect the Chargers to go deep in the playoffs this season.